Guide to Energy

Energy may be one of the most under-owned sectors relative to its role in the economy. This video highlights what you can expect to find in our Guide to Energy. Dive into the Guide to learn more about key events driving the sector’s transformation and growth, the effect of current events, the longevity of the sector’s growth, and initiatives driving the producers and users.

Designed to help you connect energy infrastructure to potential portfolio opportunity, every page in the guide is built to help answer questions you may have about energy.

Here are some of the points covered in the current guide.

  • How has the conflict with Iran affected crude oil and natural gas?
  • Where are the opportunities in the energy value chain?
  • Why aren’t oil producers drilling at $100 oil?
  • Why is midstream cash flow experiencing record cash flows?
  • Where do electricity demand and load growth stand?
  • Has AI infrastructure demand been affected by the conflict?

Energy powers everything from homes to global industries and supply chains. Rapidly rising global energy demand—driven by economic growth, expanding international markets, and AI infrastructure—is accelerating investment. As a leading oil and natural gas producer, the United States continues to strengthen its role in global energy security and export markets.

The energy sector continues to evolve. As energy specialists with over 20 years of experience, Tortoise Capital is at the forefront of today’s global evolution. We invest across the entire energy value chain identifying companies with free cash flow, shareholder-friendly capital allocation, and exposure to structural growth trends that span technology, the global economy, and national security.

Upstream

Exposure: High

Cash flows rise with crude prices, but capital discipline limits incremental drilling. Producers are returning cash to shareholders, not chasing rigs.

U.S. rig count · Mar 2025 – Mar 2026
520540560580600MarMayJulSepNovJanMar
Source: Bloomberg · as of 03/31/2026
Producer commentary
“$70 oil is enough to justify more drilling. So far, they haven’t.”
Diamondback · paraphrase
The number that matters to a CEO is not on CNBC. It’s on the forward curve.

Midstream

Exposure: Insulated

Fee-based revenue means the conflict is largely noise. Tolls collected on volumes — not prices. Capital is accumulating faster than it can be deployed.

Distributions
Higher payouts to unitholders.
Buybacks
Compress float, increase per-unit economics.
Acquisitions
Buy infrastructure at a dislocated price.
$130 Billion in Annual Cash Flow. Where Does It Go?$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$140Billions2026E$132027E$202028E$272029E$332030ECapital DeployedReturned to ShareholdersUnallocated Surplus
Source: Tortoise Capital Estimates
Distributions
Higher payouts to unitholders.
Buybacks
Compress float, increase per-unit economics.
Acquisitions
Buy infrastructure at a dislocated price.

Refiners

Exposure: Direct

Most directly tied to price dislocations. The widening BrentWTI spread funnels straight into U.S. refiner margin. Crack spreads up sharply.

The mechanism
U.S. refiners buy crude at WTI. They sell products at Brent-linked global prices. The wider the spread, the deeper the margin.
Crack Spreads Surge Around the World$0$100$200$300$400$500$6002/27/20263/6/20263/13/20263/20/20263/27/2026USEUAsia
Source: Bloomberg · indexed to 100 at 2/27/2026
The mechanism
U.S. refiners buy crude at WTI. They sell products at Brent-linked global prices. The wider the spread, the deeper the margin.

Power & Utilities

Exposure: Build cycle

Capital programs driven by load growth, not commodity cycles. Utilities continue building regardless of what happens in the Persian Gulf.

The pattern
Three independent forecast vintages. Three successive increases. The analysts keep being wrong in the same direction.
Utility Capex: Three Forecast Vintages. One Direction.406080100120140160180200220240260$B201820192020202120222023202420252026E2027E2028ECurrent12/31/202512/31/2024
Bloomberg, Wolfe Research
Projections on this page are shown for informational purposes only and no guarantee of future outcomes. Reflects TCA views and opinions as of date herein which are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions.
The pattern
Three independent forecast vintages. Three successive increases. The analysts keep being wrong in the same direction.

AI Infrastructure

Exposure: Demand driver

At the end of the chain, reshaping the system before the conflict. Hyperscaler capex on a vertical curve. Energy is the binding constraint.

The binding constraint
Permitting, grid interconnection, and power — not capital or demand — are the things slowing the build.
Hyperscaler capex · USD billions, annual
$0B$200B$400B$600B$800BPRE-AI ERAAI ADOPTION$932020$1312021$1582022$1542023$2392024$4122025$6762026E$7612027E$8042028E$7692029E$7502030E
Combined capex of major hyperscalers · $B · Bloomberg, Tortoise estimates (2026E+) · as of 3/31/2026
The binding constraint
Permitting, grid interconnection, and power — not capital or demand — are the things slowing the build.

Access key insights around the trends and drivers leading the energy transformation.

Download the Tortoise Capital Energy Guide now.