Guide to Energy Markets

Energy may be one of the most under-owned sectors relative to its role in the economy. This video highlights what you can expect to find in our Guide to Energy Markets. Dive into the Guide to learn more about key events driving the sector’s transformation and growth, the effect of current events, the longevity of the sector’s growth, and initiatives driving the producers and users.

Designed to help you connect energy infrastructure to potential portfolio opportunity, every page in the guide is built to help answer questions you may have about energy.

Here are some of the points covered in the current guide.

  • Why crude oil gave back its war premium while futures still price oil higher for years.
  • What does damage to LNG facilities mean for natural gas prices in the near term?
  • How is AI growth increasing demand for memory, electricity, and grid capacity?
  • How will hyperscaler data center spending affect future energy demand?
  • How is the energy value chain affected by these shifts?

The energy sector continues to evolve. As energy specialists with over 20 years of experience, Tortoise Capital is at the forefront of today’s global evolution. We invest across the entire energy value chain identifying companies with free cash flow, shareholder-friendly capital allocation, and exposure to structural growth trends that span technology, the global economy, and national security.

Upstream

U.S. oil and gas producers are pumping more than ever, using fewer rigs than they were a year ago. It’s a story of doing more with less. Private companies have started adding rigs since March, a sign that today’s prices are worth drilling for again.

~30 Fewer Rigs, and Privates Are Adding Again

U.S. rig count · Trailing 15 Months
Image of data chart pertaining to upstream information
As of 6/30/2026. Source: Bloomberg, EIA, Baker Hughes, TCA
Producer commentary
More Oil and Gas, Fewer Rigs — Producers are proving they can grow output without growing headcount or equipment, a discipline investors have been asking for.
Producers are growing output without overspending. That’s the restraint investors want to see.

Midstream

Pipeline companies get paid for how much moves through their systems, not what it’s worth. That means the headlines about conflict and oil prices barely touch their bottom line. These companies are generating more cash than they know what to do with, with an estimated $36 billion in extra capital by 2030.

Distributions
Paying more back to investors.
Buybacks
Buying back shares to make each one worth more.
Acquisitions
Buying up assets while prices are still depressed.

Projected Cash Flows Fund Capex, Shareholder Returns, and a $36 Billion Surplus

Annual Midstream Cash Flow by Use, 2026E-2030E ($B)
Image of data chart pertaining to midstream information
Note: Prior edition of this guide estimated $33B annual surplus in 2030.
As of 6/30/2026. Source: Bloomberg, TCA estimates
Distributions
Paying more back to investors.
Buybacks
Buying back shares to make each one worth more.
Acquisitions
Buying up assets while prices are still depressed.

Refiners

Refiners are making significantly more money turning crude oil into gasoline and jet fuel than they were before the conflict, in some regions nearly six times as much. A lot of global refining capacity has been knocked offline and hasn’t come back.

Why Margins are Holding
Refineries in the Middle East and Russia have been knocked offline, and exports out of the Gulf are down. Meanwhile, demand for fuel in the U.S. and Europe hasn’t slowed down. Even parts of Asia are cutting back on flights and business travel just to make supplies stretch.

Margins Still Run 1.6x to 2.9x Pre-Conflict Levels

Regional Refining Margins, Indexed to 2/27/2026 = 100
Image of data chart pertaining to refiners information
As of 6/30/2026. Source: Bloomberg, IEA, Reuters
Why Margins are Holding
Refineries in the Middle East and Russia have been knocked offline, and exports out of the Gulf are down. Meanwhile, demand for fuel in the U.S. and Europe hasn’t slowed down. Even parts of Asia are cutting back on flights and business travel just to make supplies stretch.

Power & Utilities

Utilities keep spending more to build out the grid, and it has nothing to do with oil prices or the conflict overseas. Demand for electricity is growing for the first time in 20 years, and every new forecast keeps proving too conservative.

The pattern
Wall Street Keeps Underestimating This — Three years running, analysts have raised their spending forecasts for utilities, and every time, they’ve had to raise them again. Demand keeps outpacing expectations.
Utility Capex: Three Forecast Vintages. One Direction.
U.S. Utility Capex, Actuals 2018-2025 and Estimates 2026E-2028E ($B)
Image of data chart pertaining to power & utilities information
As of 6/30/2026. Source: Bloomberg
Projections on this page are shown for informational purposes only and no guarantee of future outcomes. Reflects TCA views and opinions as of date herein which are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions.
The pattern
Wall Street Keeps Underestimating This — Three years running, analysts have raised their spending forecasts for utilities, and every time, they’ve had to raise them again. Demand keeps outpacing expectations.

AI Infrastructure

Big tech just raised its AI spending plans by another $90 billion this quarter alone. Total spending on AI infrastructure is now closing in on $1 trillion a year, and it keeps climbing every time we check.

The binding constraint
It’s not money and it’s not chips anymore. It’s power. Getting projects connected to the grid and permitted is the real bottleneck. Tech companies are burning cash to build all this, but their balance sheets can easily absorb it.
Estimate Was $600 Billion. Then $800 Billion. Now Approaching $1 Trillion.
Hyperscaler AI Infrastructure Capex, Actuals and Estimates ($B)
Image of data chart pertaining to ai infrastructure information
As of 6/30/2026. Source: Bloomberg, AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT, ORCL, NVDA
Projections on this page are shown for informational purposes only and no guarantee of future outcomes. Reflects TCA views and opinions as of date herein which are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions.
The binding constraint
It’s not money and it’s not chips anymore. It’s power. Getting projects connected to the grid and permitted is the real bottleneck. Tech companies are burning cash to build all this, but their balance sheets can easily absorb it.

Access key insights around the trends and drivers leading the energy transformation.

Download the Tortoise Capital Guide to Energy Markets now.